{"text":[[{"start":7.15,"text":"The writer is a distinguished research fellow at CNA, an independent research institute"}],[{"start":12.4,"text":"This week, US President Donald Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing — his first trip to China since a state visit in 2017. There, two strong-willed leaders, each of whom believes his country has leverage over the other, will seek to put a positive public face on a contentious relationship. A single meeting will not solve the many intractable issues that divide the two countries. This summit is about competition management."}],[{"start":39.5,"text":"Some argue that the fact that the meeting is taking place at all is a positive outcome, given it has already been postponed once because of the Iran war. We can anticipate announcements of a few trade deals and perhaps the establishment of a “Board of Trade” to manage the flow of non-sensitive goods. Perhaps the leaders will also set up a new working group on AI or fresh initiatives to increase people-to-people exchanges. But expectations for what else may result from this summit should be kept in check."}],[{"start":68.75,"text":"But Trump should be prepared for difficult conversations on some key issues — trade, technology, the Iran war, and especially Taiwan. Although global attention will be focused on the US-China trade relationship, Beijing has signalled publicly, privately, and with increasing frequency in the lead-up to the visit that the Taiwan issue will be high on, if not at the top of, Xi’s agenda. As Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi told US secretary of state Marco Rubio recently, Taiwan “is the biggest risk in China-US relations” and that “new space for China-US co-operation” is contingent upon how Washington handles the issue."}],[{"start":109.55,"text":"Undoubtedly, those who prepared Trump for this trip will have emphasised that the China he is about to visit is very different from the China he visited in November 2017. To be sure, leaders in Beijing are facing myriad domestic challenges. Yet, when it comes to China’s place in the international system and Beijing’s positioning vis-à-vis the US, Trump and his team will encounter a great wall of confidence. "}],[{"start":134.6,"text":"This newfound confidence stems from two factors. First, a belief in Beijing that China’s national strength, mostly its economic might, is now such that it does not have to accommodate the US without extracting its own concessions. Do Chinese analysts believe the two countries are comparable in what they refer to as “comprehensive national power” (a complex set of indices measuring national strength)? They would answer “no” but add their assessment that the gap between the two countries is narrowing. "}],[{"start":163.79999999999998,"text":"The widely held view in Beijing is that China is the only country that successfully faced down the Trump administration in recent trade wars initiated by Washington. Beijing hit back at the US tit-for-tat until a temporary though fragile truce was called. In Beijing’s telling, Washington had to confront the fact that China had the will and the leverage to successfully push back. The US, the Chinese argument goes, must now take China’s interests seriously. (Of course, the Trump administration sees it the other way around.)"}],[{"start":195.89999999999998,"text":"Second, Chinese foreign policy specialists assess that their long-awaited multi-polar world is finally beginning to unfold — an international system in which power is diffused, US influence is diminished and China’s clout is increasing. Indeed, foreign minister Wang Yi used the concept of multi-polarity to anchor his speech at the 2025 Munich Security Conference. "}],[{"start":219.45,"text":"This trend towards multi-polarity, they assert, has long been evident but is, in their view, being catalysed by the US government’s own policies — from the Trump administration riding roughshod over some of its key allies and partners to the waning influence of US soft power, due to foreign aid cuts while Beijing continues to court the global south. "}],[{"start":241.5,"text":"Furthermore, Chinese analysts argue that recent US military actions in the Caribbean, Venezuela and especially Iran help Beijing make the case that America is a force for global instability. Chinese propaganda directed at third countries asserts that the Iran war is stressing the US military and the country’s defence industrial base, even as Chinese observers express awe at US operational capabilities."}],[{"start":266.25,"text":"To be clear, Beijing’s confidence in its own rising stature in the international system may turn out to be as aspirational as its view of an America fading into the sunset is wishful thinking. "}],[{"start":277.75,"text":"But either way, as Trump lands in Beijing, in addition to enjoying ingratiating hospitality, he is going to encounter Chinese resolve on a range of issues of vital importance to US citizens and to many others around the world. Even though expectations for dazzling deliverables are low, there is a good deal at stake. If nothing else, the visit will probably set the tone for US-China relations for the remainder of Trump’s time in office. "}],[{"start":305.25,"text":"If the result of this meeting, and future ones, is that the strategic competition between the two countries is better managed, that will be a win."}],[{"start":321.3,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1778659936_3181.mp3"}