Germany risks ‘squandering’ growth from debt bazooka, warn top advisers - FT中文网
登录×
电子邮件/用户名
密码
记住我
请输入邮箱和密码进行绑定操作:
请输入手机号码,通过短信验证(目前仅支持中国大陆地区的手机号):
请您阅读我们的用户注册协议隐私权保护政策,点击下方按钮即视为您接受。
德国

Germany risks ‘squandering’ growth from debt bazooka, warn top advisers

German Council of Economic Experts downgrades economic growth forecast for 2026 to 0.9%
00:00

{"text":[[{"start":10.24,"text":"The German economy will only slowly recover from more than four years of stagnation as Chancellor Friedrich Merz risks bungling his €1tn debt-funded investment drive, the country’s top economic advisory body has warned."}],[{"start":27.979999999999997,"text":"In a scathing assessment of Berlin’s spending plans, the German Council of Economic Experts — which provides independent advice to the government — said the country’s GDP growth would edge up from 0.2 per cent this year to only 0.9 per cent in 2026, below the government’s projection of 1.3 per cent."}],[{"start":52.01,"text":"The five-member panel of academic economists warned the implementation of Merz’s fiscal push, intended to boost defence and infrastructure, needed “significant improvement” and that under the plans “substantial funds are replacing regular budget expenditures”."}],[{"start":70.78999999999999,"text":"Some of the new fiscal leeway was being used to pay for “dubious measures” such as higher pensions for non-working mothers and bigger tax incentives for commuters, the council said in a 600-page annual economic report presented at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday afternoon."}],[{"start":90.82999999999998,"text":"“The opportunities arising from [the debt-funded investment funds] must not be squandered,” said the council’s chair Monika Schnitzer."}],[{"start":99.47999999999999,"text":"The criticism echoes similar concerns raised by the Bundesbank and two economic think-tanks that a sizeable portion of the government’s debt-funded investment is being used for areas that should be funded from the ordinary budget."}],[{"start":114.80999999999999,"text":"Under current spending plans, roughly half of the borrowing that is supposed to be used for additional investment will, in fact, be spent on government consumption, the council’s calculations show."}],[{"start":127.50999999999999,"text":"“The positive macroeconomic effects under the current spending path remain limited,” it said, adding that government debt could nonetheless rise to more than 85 per cent of GDP by 2035, compared with 63 per cent this year."}],[{"start":145.95,"text":"Unless the government changed tack, “growth opportunities could be lost, and the long-term debt sustainability of the German state could be jeopardised”, the report said."}],[{"start":157.63,"text":"The council also warned the nation’s manufacturing base “is increasingly falling behind” its global competitors."}],[{"start":165.23,"text":"When taking delivery of the report in Berlin, Merz stated his coalition was determined to increase Germany’s long-term growth potential by increasing investment, cutting red tape and lowering taxes. “We are striving to fundamentally improve the economic situation,” he said, adding the country’s growth “has been too weak for many years”."}],[{"start":190.07,"text":"The finance ministry has previously rejected the criticism levelled at it by the country’s central bank and think-tanks, including the German Economic Institute and Ifo, arguing that its budgets were in line with rules set out when the country this year loosened its constitutional borrowing limit for infrastructure and defence spending."}],[{"start":214.54999999999998,"text":"The council’s forecast for GDP growth next year is 0.1 percentage points lower than its last estimate in May, although its 2025 projection has improved from its previous prediction of zero growth."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":237.72,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1762993842_7159.mp3"}

版权声明:本文版权归FT中文网所有,未经允许任何单位或个人不得转载,复制或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵权必究。

前阿波罗风控主管警告新兴寿险公司风险

查克•拉古纳坦指出,一些较新的寿险公司高度依赖私募信贷以及易遭提款冲击的新型储蓄产品。

医疗保健正在推动美国经济

福鲁哈尔:医疗保健是一个庞大的行业——但这未必是好事。

公司董事会应该任命一名AI董事吗?

新的AI工具可帮助董事长和董事们进行准备与调研,但不太可能被赋予投票权。

盟友请求美国财政部支援?但互换额度存在上限

美国曾向阿根廷提供200亿美元的互换额度,但对海湾和亚洲盟友提供类似安排将面临诸多制约。

伊朗战争致汽油价格持续高企,美国车主减少加油

飙升的驾车成本在11月中期选举前给特朗普带来了政治难题,他在2024年竞选期间曾承诺将汽油价格降至每加仑2美元。

加拿大实业界:繁琐监管之害甚于特朗普关税

加拿大企业表示,过度监管正在扼杀卡尼总理提振经济增长的努力。
设置字号×
最小
较小
默认
较大
最大
分享×