{"text":[[{"start":6.65,"text":"A crowded field of presidential hopefuls in France is making the 2027 race to succeed Emmanuel Macron one of the most unpredictable in years, as the far-right Rassemblement National remains the frontrunner to reach the run-off."}],[{"start":20.85,"text":"Although the campaign will not begin in earnest until the autumn, politicians from across the spectrum have already begun declaring their candidacies, with a dozen already formally in the race. With continued security threats from Moscow and the EU’s fraught relationship with Washington, the direction of the bloc’s second-largest economy is being watched closely."}],[{"start":41.75,"text":"The choice of a successor to Macron — a staunchly pro-European, pro-business centrist in office since 2017 — will be pivotal for the EU. Marine Le Pen, a Eurosceptic who has at times sympathised with Russia, leads first-round polls on about 30 per cent alongside her lieutenant Jordan Bardella, who could run in her place."}],[{"start":61.45,"text":"“Barring major surprises the RN will be in the second round,” said Jérôme Fourquet, a pollster at Ifop and author of books on France’s changing demographics and culture. “But if there are a multitude of candidates, the threshold to make the run-off will be lower than usual, which could lead to unexpected outcomes.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":80,"text":"Whether the RN can finally take power after losing two successive run-offs will depend on its second-round opponent. Mainstream politicians and the business establishment are keen to avoid a contest between the RN and far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, an anti-capitalist Eurosceptic who wants to take France out of Nato."}],[{"start":99.1,"text":"But to prevent that, the rest of the field needs to get its act together. If centre and rightwing candidates do not drop out in favour of a clear successor to Macron before the April vote, the chances for the RN candidate to win the presidency rise."}],[{"start":113.94999999999999,"text":"And if the highly fragmented moderate left cannot coalesce around a single contender, they risk missing out on the run-off as they have since 2012."}],[{"start":125.24999999999999,"text":"The race is in a stage Mao Zedong once described as “let a hundred flowers blossom” — when a plethora of candidates with little chance lay down a marker for the future or to keep their parties relevant. Pollsters warn that early contenders who seemed well positioned a year out have often faded."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":143,"text":"Fourquet expressed confidence that the field will narrow come October. He said the current mushrooming of candidacies stems from politicians seeking to emulate Macron, who won in 2017 as a young outsider with a new party. Another factor is how the once dominant leftwing Socialists and rightwing Les Républicains, who alternated in power for decades, are too weak to impose their candidates and squeezed by the rise of the extremes."}],[{"start":171.8,"text":"“Many of the people who now say they want to run are thinking ‘why not me?’ just as Macron did,” said Fourquet. "}],[{"start":179.05,"text":"One is Gabriel Attal, Macron’s 37-year-old former prime minister who has taken over his Renaissance party. He has not declared yet but is expected to do so. "}],[{"start":189.10000000000002,"text":"But he is competing with the more rightwing Édouard Philippe, Macron’s former prime minister from 2017 to 2020, who is at present serving as mayor of Le Havre. "}],[{"start":199.40000000000003,"text":"Most polls put Philippe in second place with about 20 per cent. An Elabe poll in late March showed him narrowly beating Bardella or Le Pen in a hypothetical run-off. Philippe has promised to focus on repairing France’s degraded public finances, investing in education and reforming pensions."}],[{"start":217.50000000000003,"text":"Despite their differences, Philippe and Attal have set up a back channel to discuss how to end up with a single candidate. People close to them say they have agreed to fight it out until early next year, then see who is best placed to run."}],[{"start":230.30000000000004,"text":"Arnaud Péricard, spokesperson for Philippe’s Horizons party, said his boss and Attal would show “a sense of responsibility” and decide on who steps down “to prevent the irreversible, namely a second round between the two extremist candidates”."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":245.45000000000005,"text":"For now, Attal and Philippe are seeking to distance themselves from Macron, as critics portray them as mere extensions of the president and blame them for his political and economic failures. "}],[{"start":256.00000000000006,"text":"Philippe made a shock call last year for Macron to step down early to break political gridlock, whereas Attal has used his new book to criticise the president’s ill-fated decision to call snap elections in 2024 that they lost."}],[{"start":271.20000000000005,"text":"But “it will be difficult for them to convince voters that they have broken with the president”, said Fourquet."}],[{"start":277.20000000000005,"text":"France elects its president in two rounds, with the two highest-scoring candidates advancing to the run-off. The adage goes that the French vote with their hearts in the first round, and then with their heads to eliminate the person they dislike in the second — a dynamic that will be tested again if the RN makes the run-off."}],[{"start":295.20000000000005,"text":"Le Pen is currently banned from standing for office because of a conviction for embezzling EU funds. She maintains her innocence, and an appeal ruling is due on July 7 that will determine if she can run. RN party leader Bardella has vowed to step in for her if that is the case."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":313.00000000000006,"text":"The RN has consolidated the far-right spectrum, even as some fringe candidates such as Éric Zemmour are still putting their hat in the ring. "}],[{"start":322.25000000000006,"text":"On the left, the field is very crowded, which favours Mélenchon, whose base is at least 10 per cent. Opinion polls show that the RN candidate would win the run-off in a landslide against Mélenchon, now in his fourth bid for the Élysée. In 2022, the far-left politician nearly made it into the run-off against Macron, winning 22 per cent of the vote to Le Pen’s 23 per cent."}],[{"start":349.40000000000003,"text":"“Internal divisions in parties mean there is a multitude of candidates and it’s total confusion. For us, things are straightforward,” Mélenchon said in a swipe at his leftist rivals when he announced his candidacy earlier this month. "}],[{"start":363.05,"text":"Socialist leader Olivier Faure, the independent leftwing politician Raphaël Glucksmann, the Greens’ Marine Tondelier, and the Communist Fabien Roussel are trying to forge a deal for a joint candidate. Such agreements helped them triumph in closely fought mayoral races in Paris and Marseille earlier this year. But they have not made much progress amid disagreements over how and when to select such a candidate."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":389.2,"text":"Holding primaries are seen as “machines to manufacture losers” since previous competitions have exposed weakness, rather than confer legitimacy. LR party leader Retailleau saw off several putative challengers by holding a simpler, closed vote that he handily won, and Attal is expected to do the same in Renaissance."}],[{"start":411.8,"text":"Pierre Jouvet, a senior Socialist backing Faure, said the centre-left must unite to stave off Mélenchon. Among the left’s many presidential hopefuls is former president François Hollande, attempting a long-shot comeback. "}],[{"start":426.45,"text":"The quest for unity hit another setback on Friday when Faure’s number two ​in the Socialist party mounted a rebellion​, creating another schism within the left."}],[{"start":436.3,"text":"“It is really complicated for us to be so split,” said Jouvet. “We have to stop being the dumbest left in the world.”"}],[{"start":443.3,"text":"Data visualisation by Janina Conboye and carousel by Carolina Vargas"}],[{"start":456.25,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1778492552_1234.mp3"}