{"text":[[{"start":6.65,"text":"The surge in global energy prices triggered by the Iran war is expected to have driven US inflation in April to its highest level since 2023."}],[{"start":16.05,"text":"Figures published on Tuesday are expected to show a 3.8 per cent annual rise in consumer prices, according to economists polled by Bloomberg, up from 3.3 per cent in March. The core measure of inflation — stripping out volatile food and energy prices — is expected to have risen to 2.7 per cent, from 2.6 per cent previously."}],[{"start":38.6,"text":"Headline inflation is sensitive to energy costs and analysts therefore expect it to be affected by the steep rise in oil prices since the US and Israel began their war on Iran at the end of February. Traders and policymakers will be particularly focused on the core metric for signs of companies passing on rising costs to consumers. "}],[{"start":59.25,"text":"Citi economists Veronica Clark and Andrew Hollenhorst say that while core inflation will move higher, the rise will not be driven by energy costs. Rather, any increase will reflect residual data issues because of the US government shutdown last October and November."}],[{"start":75.5,"text":"“Shelter inflation should ‘catch-up’ from missing [data] collections last fall, essentially reflecting two months of price increases in one,” they wrote in a note. "}],[{"start":85.8,"text":"The Iran war has shifted investor expectations for Federal Reserve policy for the remainder of the year. At the start of 2026, traders in the futures market were pricing in two or three quarter-percentage-point interest rate cuts."}],[{"start":99.45,"text":"Now, traders see only a very small chance of a cut in the coming months and a roughly one-third chance of a rate increase by spring next year. Kate Duguid "}],[{"start":108.60000000000001,"text":"Where next for the yen?"}],[{"start":110.95,"text":"Japan’s interventions to support its currency since the end of April could have amounted to ¥10tn ($60bn), according to estimates by analysts at MUFG and Bank of America."}],[{"start":122.15,"text":"Such a sum, said MUFG’s Derek Halpenny in a note on Friday, would be roughly similar to an intervention in April to May 2024 that “ultimately failed to strengthen the yen”, with the result that by July that year, Japanese authorities “were intervening again”."}],[{"start":139.75,"text":"The question is whether this time will be any different. The yen has held its gains since the first reports of intervention on April 30, moving from above ¥160 to the dollar on that day to below ¥157. Analysts have for a while viewed ¥160 as a line in the sand for authorities."}],[{"start":158.9,"text":"Analysts said a sustained uplift in the currency would require either a fall in oil prices, which have hit Japan during the Iran war as an energy importer, or a signal that inflationary pressures are making an interest rate rise by the Bank of Japan more likely."}],[{"start":174.1,"text":"Halpenny said: “A combination of Middle East de-escalation and a more hawkish BoJ is the most plausible route to the [finance ministry’s] recent intervention having any sustained follow-through.” Ian Smith"}],[{"start":185.25,"text":"Is UK economic growth on the rise this year?"}],[{"start":189,"text":"Economic data next week is expected to bring some much-needed good news for the UK’s Labour government after its drubbing in elections on Thursday."}],[{"start":197.15,"text":"GDP is forecast to have grown strongly in the first quarter of the year, particularly in February, with the Bank of England estimating growth of 0.5 per cent, while economists polled by Reuters expect a stronger reading of 0.6 per cent when the data is released on Thursday. "}],[{"start":214.4,"text":"Stronger growth could, in theory at least, prompt investors to price in further interest rate rises by the BoE, with robust economic activity expected to add to price pressures already elevated by higher energy costs stemming from the Iran war."}],[{"start":228.9,"text":"However, the central bank last month said the expected growth rate “is substantially higher than the signal from survey indicators and follows a pattern of unusually high growth rates in [the first quarter] in recent years”."}],[{"start":241.55,"text":"That may mean policymakers place less weight than usual on the data. The BoE has calculated that underlying GDP, based on business survey indicators, grew only 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, “consistent with a growing margin of slack” in the economy."}],[{"start":259.2,"text":"Last year, the UK economy expanded 0.7 per cent in the first quarter but then barely grew over the rest of the year."}],[{"start":266.8,"text":"Traders will focus on data from March for an indication of the extent to which the Iran war is hitting business and household spending. "}],[{"start":273.8,"text":"Sandra Horsfield, an economist at investment bank Investec, said: “The initial impact of the conflict on the UK economy had just started to be felt, as petrol prices rose and uncertainty mounted for firms and households.”"}],[{"start":288.25,"text":"“With that, and some payback effects from the strong February reading, we have pencilled in an unchanged level of output in both services and industrial production during March,” she added."}],[{"start":300.2,"text":"Economists polled by Consensus Economics have cut their UK growth forecast for this year as a whole to 0.6 per cent, down from 1 per cent before the war. Valentina Romei"}],[{"start":318.95,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1778415327_9897.mp3"}