UAE withdrawal from Opec reopens rift with Saudi Arabia

{"text":[[{"start":7.7,"text":"As Gulf states gathered for a hastily convened summit this week to discuss the US-Israeli war on Iran, one of the group dropped a surprise bombshell."}],[{"start":17.95,"text":"At the very moment that Saudi Arabia was hosting the regional summit in Jeddah, the United Arab Emirates announced it was leaving Opec — dealing a blow to Riyadh, the cartel’s de facto leader."}],[{"start":28.7,"text":"The UAE, which has longstanding frustrations with Opec quotas that restricted its ability to sell more crude, insisted the decision was driven by energy policy, not politics."}],[{"start":39.3,"text":"But the move has escalated a long-festering rift with Saudi Arabia, one that has played out over oil policy, economic competition and in their support for opposing factions in Yemen and Sudan."}],[{"start":50.9,"text":"It underscored how the war against Iran has tested alliances and exposed divisions among Washington’s Gulf allies at a time of crisis, accelerating a recalibration of relationships and security partnerships in the Middle East and beyond."}],[{"start":66.95,"text":"“For a few weeks the [Saudi-UAE] tensions were more suppressed because the war was the focus. But if anything, the war has supercharged these tensions,” said Emile Hokayem at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "}],[{"start":80.60000000000001,"text":"“It’s more likely than not that Gulf unity will be eroded rather than strengthened” by the conflict, Hokayem said."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":87.7,"text":"When the US and Israel launched the assault on Iran on February 28, the Arab states — who had all counselled US President Donald Trump not to launch the war — put on a unified front as they focused on defending against the Islamic republic’s retaliatory attacks."}],[{"start":104.9,"text":"But cracks began to emerge as the war went on, with the UAE in particular expressing frustration with what it regarded as the meek response of its traditional Arab and Muslim allies. "}],[{"start":116.35000000000001,"text":"The faultlines were on display at a conference in Dubai this week, when Anwar Gargash, the UAE’s foreign policy presidential adviser, openly criticised the Gulf Cooperation Council — which also includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain — for being weak."}],[{"start":133.65,"text":"“I expected such a weak stance from the Arab League, and I’m not surprised by it, but I don’t expect it from the GCC, and I am surprised by it,” Gargash told the conference."}],[{"start":144.85,"text":"“Where are the joint Arab and Islamic institutions . . . while our countries and peoples are subjected to this treacherous Iranian aggression?” he said separately last month, criticising the regional Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, a grouping of Muslim nations. “And where are the ‘major’ Arab and regional states?”"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":165.65,"text":"The UAE has taken the most hawkish stance towards Iran in part because it endured the greatest barrage of Iranian fire. The Islamic republic launched more than 2,500 missiles and drones at the state."}],[{"start":177.9,"text":"While the vast majority of attacks on the UAE were intercepted by air defences, the relentless salvos dented the Gulf state’s status as a safe haven — a foundational pillar in its rise to become the Middle East’s pre-eminent trade and tourism hub."}],[{"start":192.25,"text":"Yet while positioning itself as an entrepôt bridging the east and west, the UAE had for years stood out for pursuing a more assertive foreign policy than its neighbours."}],[{"start":202.35,"text":"It broke a Gulf taboo by formalising relations with Israel after signing the so-called Abraham Accords in 2020, which it remained committed to even as Arab and Muslim outrage over Israel’s war in Gaza soared. Bahrain, long a hawk on Iran, was the only other Gulf state to join the accords."}],[{"start":220.15,"text":"When the Iran war erupted, Saudi Arabia shared the UAE’s anger over Iranian aggression and it too saw benefit in the US and Israel degrading the Islamic republic’s missile programme once they had ignited the conflict."}],[{"start":234.3,"text":"But the kingdom has also co-ordinated with Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt — three states with whom the UAE is frustrated — in efforts to broker an end to the conflict."}],[{"start":245.8,"text":"Some analysts view this as further evidence of a burgeoning alignment between the quartet, although diplomats say it is not a formal alliance but an example of co-operation that could evolve. Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan signed a mutual defence pact last December."}],[{"start":263.25,"text":"The four countries harbour common concerns, including that Israel — emboldened and belligerent following a string of battlefield successes in the wake of Hamas’s October 7 2023 attack — is becoming a destabilising force in the region. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":277.4,"text":"Their stance on Israel puts them at odds with the UAE, which considers the country an increasingly important ally and is only deepening the partnership in the wake of the Iran war. "}],[{"start":287.29999999999995,"text":"“The priority for the UAE is to double down on the US and Israel, while the Saudis worry about an unrestrained Israel and think that a regional construct is needed to contain, manage and possibly integrate Iran,” Hokayem said. "}],[{"start":301.84999999999997,"text":"Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati academic and commentator, said the Iran war was “a milestone; a turning point that showed us who was there for us, and who was not there for us — the list of the good and the bad”."}],[{"start":314.45,"text":"“The UAE will be displaying more independence from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states and be more assertive from now on,” he added."}],[{"start":322.55,"text":"Abu Dhabi this month asked Pakistan to repay a $3.5bn loan in a sign of its annoyance with Islamabad’s role as a mediator between the US and Iran and its posture on the war, as well as its deepening ties to Riyadh. "}],[{"start":337,"text":"The tensions with Saudi Arabia had been bubbling beneath the surface long before the Iran war, including friction about Opec’s production quotas and their differing approaches to regional policies."}],[{"start":348.5,"text":"Their competing visions — particularly over the civil wars in Sudan and Yemen, where they back rival factions — burst into the open in December and January. "}],[{"start":358,"text":"The flashpoint was an offensive by UAE-backed secessionist faction against Saudi-affiliated forces in Yemen, with Riyadh accusing Abu Dhabi of greenlighting the attack and threatening its national security interests."}],[{"start":371,"text":"Firas Maksad, Middle East director at Eurasia Group, said the rivalry between the two Gulf states ran deep."}],[{"start":377.75,"text":"“It’s not only competition in places like Yemen and Sudan and the Horn of Africa, it’s just fundamentally a different approach to the dynamics of the region, and the way of dealing with Iran and Israel,” Maksad said. “The UAE has positioned itself as the tip of the spear against Iran, while Saudi Arabia is maintaining an open channel to Tehran.”"}],[{"start":400.35,"text":"“And Abu Dhabi is bandwagoning on Israeli power, whereas Riyadh and other regional heavyweights are balancing against it.”"}],[{"start":408.40000000000003,"text":"Abdulla said it was “very possible” the UAE could follow its decision to exit Opec by freezing its membership of the Arab League and the GCC. "}],[{"start":416.75000000000006,"text":"The Gulf bloc was formed 45 years ago this month as the smaller Arab states sought to put on a united front to manage the threat from Iran after the 1979 Islamic revolution. But it is now grappling with its two largest and most influential members being at loggerheads. "}],[{"start":436.70000000000005,"text":"“There is a massive, perverse irony in this war in that the three belligerents — the US, Israel and Iran — can all make a claim of some strategic success here or there,” Hokayem said. “But the net strategic losers are the Gulf states, which did not want to initiate or fight this war.”"}],[{"start":461,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1777536651_3179.mp3"}