{"text":[[{"start":7.9,"text":"It took almost two years in office for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government to find its voice on the most divisive issue in postwar British politics."}],[{"start":16.950000000000003,"text":"With the economy flatlining, the Iran war threatening an energy price shock and Donald Trump proving an ever more unreliable ally, it was to Brussels, not Washington, that the UK prime minister turned when he delivered an address to the nation this month."}],[{"start":31.700000000000003,"text":"“Brexit did deep damage to our economy,” Starmer said, echoing what has long been the consensus view of economists. He promised that Britain would be “more ambitious” in deepening ties with the EU, arguing that the benefits of doing so were now “simply too big to ignore”."}],[{"start":48.75,"text":"But diplomats and analysts warn that Starmer may already have missed his opportunity for a grand pivot to Europe. Time is running out, both for negotiations and also to show voters any real economic benefit from closer links to the trade superpower across the English Channel. "}],[{"start":65.45,"text":"EU officials openly doubt Starmer’s ability to deliver, as he fights to stay on as prime minister and Nigel Farage’s poll-topping Reform UK party vows to tear up any “reset” with Brussels. “We have a list of 10 priorities that are far higher,” says one diplomat from the bloc."}],[{"start":82.25,"text":"In Westminster, the question is whether the prime minister’s overture to Europe is a serious effort to inject fresh momentum into talks with Brussels or merely a tactical move to placate Labour backbenchers increasingly frustrated by his timidity on the issue."}],[{"start":95.9,"text":"They fret that the outcome of Labour’s EU “reset” so far has been limited. "}],[{"start":100.55000000000001,"text":"A package of measures to be agreed at an EU-UK summit in July will, by the government’s own estimate, increase UK GDP by just 0.3 per cent over the next decade and a half. "}],[{"start":112.45000000000002,"text":"The steps include a deal to remove checks on food and drink exports and the relinking of EU and UK carbon pricing schemes. A youth mobility deal to allow 18- to 30-year-olds to live and work in the EU or UK for up to three years has still to be agreed."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":128.15,"text":"Industry groups have welcomed the progress, as far as it goes, but note that it represents only a tiny fraction of the 4 per cent Brexit hit estimated by the UK’s fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility. "}],[{"start":141.15,"text":"EU diplomats say such gains are inevitably meagre given that Labour has stuck to manifesto “red lines” that hark back to the days of former Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson. Starmer’s administration, like its predecessors, rules out deepening institutional ties with the bloc such as forming a customs union or rejoining the single market. "}],[{"start":161.70000000000002,"text":"“Where I think it has gone wrong is that fundamentally Britain’s ‘asks’ are still the same,” another EU diplomat says. "}],[{"start":168.50000000000003,"text":"“They are asking for a ‘reset’ but it’s like old wine in new bottles: asking for being part of those areas of the single market only where they believe they have a competitive advantage. And they do not want to pay.”"}],[{"start":181.70000000000002,"text":"Such an assessment is not confined to Brussels. The House of Commons Foreign Affairs Select Committee criticised the reset last month for lacking “direction, definition and drive”. While the committee welcomed the warmer tone from the British government, it chided ministers for calling vaguely for “alignment” with Europe without setting a strategic plan."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":202.50000000000003,"text":"And yet when chancellor Rachel Reeves subsequently delivered the UK’s annual Mais Lecture on the economy, she cited a US study that estimated leaving the EU had caused an 8 per cent hit to UK GDP — double the official estimate of 4 per cent."}],[{"start":218.15000000000003,"text":"“The tension between ‘Brexit is costing 8 per cent of GDP’ and ‘we have a reset that won’t change much’ is untenable,” says Anand Menon, director of the UK in a Changing Europe think-tank. “We’re now heading towards a tipping point where the status quo isn’t stable or sustainable.”"}],[{"start":236.10000000000002,"text":"Reset or rerun?"}],[{"start":238.05,"text":"UK and EU officials acknowledge that the first 18 months of “reset” negotiations have sapped confidence on both sides."}],[{"start":246.15,"text":"Labour had hoped to get a quick win by restoring touring musicians and professionals’ access to Europe to what it was before Brexit. But the request was swiftly rebuffed in Brussels, which ruled out — not for the first time — any British “cherry-picking” of access to the EU single market. "}],[{"start":262.85,"text":"The same requests had been made — and rejected — when Rishi Sunak’s government was in office. But Labour had hoped for a different answer. "}],[{"start":272.20000000000005,"text":"“There was just a staggering naivety at the outset,” says a Brussels insider who had offered advice to the incoming government. “[They thought] that because they weren’t the Tories, all manner of things could and would get done.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":284.55000000000007,"text":"Officials in Brussels add that EU capitals were downcast by Labour’s reluctance to embrace a youth mobility scheme that included lower “home [tuition] fees” for EU students at British universities. That meant national capitals were less motivated to push the European Commission to be more ambitious in the talks."}],[{"start":302.70000000000005,"text":"“The only EU ‘ask’ is the youth mobility scheme,” says an EU official close to the talks."}],[{"start":309.35,"text":"The commission was all the more concerned not to offer the UK anything that might be construed as cherry-picking, since such concessions could affect the debate in Switzerland, which is expected to hold a referendum next year on a package updating its own ties with the EU."}],[{"start":324.75,"text":"With Labour in office, commission president Ursula von der Leyen has hailed “a new chapter” in UK-EU ties. "}],[{"start":332.8,"text":"But what has taken place under Starmer is not so much a reset of the relationship as a rerun of old arguments from previous rounds of negotiations. "}],[{"start":341.35,"text":"“The political will is there but the bureaucratic will is not,” the EU official adds. "}],[{"start":346.75,"text":"Last November, for example, a disagreement over money led to the collapse of talks over UK participation in a new €150bn EU defence fund — despite leader-level agreement on the strategic imperative to work together to re-arm Europe."}],[{"start":362.2,"text":"Even though Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium interceded with the commission in a bid to reduce the €2bn cost of UK entry, an agreement could not be reached."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":373.4,"text":"The price tag, which the UK rejected as exorbitant, was driven by French demands to protect the EU’s own defence industries."}],[{"start":381.59999999999997,"text":"“At the end of the day we are in the same club, so we have to back our fellow member over an outsider,” says a senior EU diplomat, noting the limited effect of the UK’s warm words in its post-Brexit dealings with Brussels."}],[{"start":394.65,"text":"The UK government wants to counter the narrative with the July summit, which it hopes will strike deals paving the way for removal of some border checks for plant and animal products, as well as preventing UK industry from paying a new EU carbon tax and some kind of youth mobility scheme."}],[{"start":411.45,"text":"In Britain, such agreements are far from uncontentious. The border check agreement will require the UK to automatically follow EU rules and regulations — known in the jargon as “dynamic alignment” — which has led to accusations from the Conservatives and Reform UK that Labour is “selling out” to Brussels."}],[{"start":430.59999999999997,"text":"The government responds that it is putting the economy over ideology."}],[{"start":434.84999999999997,"text":"While the goals of the talks have been welcomed by individual industries, they leave Labour defending its decision to become a rule-taker from Brussels, while promising an economic gain that falls far short of its rhetoric. "}],[{"start":448.04999999999995,"text":"Back to all or nothing"}],[{"start":449.9,"text":"Polling shows that deep Brexit divisions remain in the UK."}],[{"start":453.95,"text":"But as Labour flounders, amid successive scandals and deepening questions about Starmer’s fate, consensus is building on the left that a more ambitious approach to Europe might be a vote-winner."}],[{"start":467.45,"text":"By contrast, both Reform UK and the Conservatives have promised to leave the European Convention on Human Rights to win greater freedom to deport undocumented migrants. Analysts warn that could rip up London’s existing trade deal with Brussels."}],[{"start":482.7,"text":"“We are moving back to a world where there is an all-or-nothing debate on Brexit,” says Menon. “The debate in the Parliamentary Labour Party is moving fast.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":492.09999999999997,"text":"Polling by YouGov published this month by Best for Britain, a pro-EU pressure group, found that a clear “rejoin” message would increase support for parties on the left — Labour, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats — much more than other, more nuanced positions."}],[{"start":507.99999999999994,"text":"“Pushing for UK membership is the most sustainable policy option available,” says Tom Brufatto, policy and research director at Best for Britain. “Not only would it create the most growth, it would also galvanise support from progressives across the UK.”"}],[{"start":522.8,"text":"While the YouGov poll put the share of the British public favouring rejoining the EU at just 53 per cent, those opposed were fewer still, at 32 per cent."}],[{"start":533.4,"text":"But polling by More in Common has found 66 per cent of Britons want a closer trading relationship with the EU with 63 per cent favouring closer ties on security and defence. "}],[{"start":545.6,"text":"“If the Brexit referendum were held today, half of the public say they would vote Remain, compared to just over a quarter who would vote Leave,” says Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common, while cautioning that nearly half the public still believe Brexit could have succeeded but was mishandled by politicians."}],[{"start":564.1,"text":"Starmer and Reeves have signalled that they want to go further after July’s summit, signalling their intention to align with Brussels’ rules in other sectors, including cars and chemicals."}],[{"start":575.0500000000001,"text":"British trade groups have welcomed the idea in principle, but worry it will be insufficient to open access to the EU’s single market. Brussels officials warn that Britain can do no more cherry-picking unless it pays more into the EU budget and concedes more on free movement."}],[{"start":591.2500000000001,"text":"As for bigger moves such as joining a customs union with the EU, Starmer’s advisers cite internal polling indicating that the idea of more years of grinding negotiations with Brussels is a big turn-off. "}],[{"start":603.5000000000001,"text":"“When you dig a bit deeper, support quickly falls away,” says one. “What if we had to join the euro? What about the financial terms? What about the damage to the national psyche if you have European politicians saying we are going back to Brussels cap in hand?”"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":618.9500000000002,"text":"Whether a future leftwing government could start a more meaningful conversation with Brussels will depend on its willingness to confront fundamental trade-offs, says Sir Ivan Rogers, the UK’s former EU ambassador. "}],[{"start":631.6500000000002,"text":"He thinks it is naive to hope that the EU will soften its negotiating position because of the rise of Trump and the threat of Russia and China."}],[{"start":641.8500000000003,"text":"“The exam question is: where do you want to be in 10 or 15 years’ time, given the world we appear to be moving into? Is the UK seriously prepared to rethink its red lines?” Rogers asks. He questions the viability of a UK strategy that at present appears to seek alignment with Europe on industrial goods but move closer to the US on technologies such as AI."}],[{"start":663.3000000000003,"text":"Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, is sceptical of a movement to rejoin the EU, arguing that Brussels would not embrace the idea without clear political consensus within the UK. For now, that looks far off. "}],[{"start":676.3000000000003,"text":"But he thinks a British government prepared to blur the current red lines could convince Brussels to agree to some form of “single market for goods”, in which the UK aligns on key industrial sectors but retains flexibility on services. "}],[{"start":691.1500000000003,"text":"“The UK is saying ‘no’ for now, but not saying ‘no’ forever,” he says. “If the UK is prepared to ‘pay to play’, accept dynamic alignment and show flexibility on the key issue of freedom of movement, the EU would find it hard to say no to ‘cherry-picking’.” "}],[{"start":706.4500000000003,"text":"Many EU diplomats do not rule out such a deal. But they contend it will require a much bolder approach from the UK government."}],[{"start":714.7500000000002,"text":"“Britain needs to have a conversation with itself,” one says. “What is the strategic priority? The UK of the late 19th century would not find it particularly difficult to understand that you also have to invest some money to be a global power. Why is it not worth Britain paying for now?”"}],[{"start":732.7000000000003,"text":"Additional reporting by Madeleine Speed "}],[{"start":741.1500000000002,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1777037872_4536.mp3"}