Trump and China vie for influence in Latin America

{"text":[[{"start":6.2,"text":"In November last year, US President Donald Trump’s administration published its national security strategy, a 33-page document that defined its view of the world. To the surprise of many in Washington — and in capitals around the world — the report identified the administration’s foremost priority to be the Americas. "}],[{"start":24.65,"text":"Rather than competition with China, or preserving peace and security in Europe, the document said that “after years of neglect”, the principal objective of US foreign policy is to “restore American pre-eminence” in the western hemisphere. "}],[{"start":39.599999999999994,"text":"Since the early 19th century, American presidents have sometimes invoked the Monroe Doctrine, which sought to deny foreign rivals access to the region. The document added a so-called “Trump Corollary”, which added the goal of preventing competitors owning or controlling “strategically vital assets” in the hemisphere."}],[{"start":57.699999999999996,"text":"Within that broader strategic push, the administration has placed particular emphasis on taking on drug cartels and reducing Chinese influence."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":67.05,"text":"As Aaron David Miller, a veteran observer of US foreign policy, put it at the time: “The document sends the unmistakable message: Stay out of America’s backyard, and we may be prepared to stay out of yours.” He added that it was both “America First” and “Trumpian to the core”."}],[{"start":84,"text":"Since that rhetorical salvo at the end of last year, the administration has been putting elements of the strategy into action."}],[{"start":90.95,"text":"Early on the morning of January 3, while much of the world was celebrating the new year, US special forces launched a dramatic raid into Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, and captured president Nicolás Maduro. He was taken to the US where he is awaiting trial on drug charges."}],[{"start":111.80000000000001,"text":"Since then, the US has effectively installed Maduro’s vice-president, Delcy Rodríguez, as the new leader. She has, in turn, started to open up the country to US investment in the oil industry — and potentially in other areas such as gold and other mining ventures. Before the intervention, Russia and China were both influential partners of the Venezuelan regime, particularly in the oil sector."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":137.35000000000002,"text":"Following the apparent success in Venezuela, the administration has turned its sights on Cuba — the country which has sparred so often with Washington since Fidel Castro took control in 1959. The US has imposed a near-total blockade of oil imports — much of which previously came from Venezuela — and is calling for sweeping changes to the way politics and economics are run in Cuba. "}],[{"start":161.90000000000003,"text":"At a summit in March at his resort in Doral near Miami, Trump met with a dozen leaders from Latin America, mostly from the political right, to warn about “hostile foreign influence” in the region — a reference largely to China’s substantial economic interests."}],[{"start":177.90000000000003,"text":"He also called on other countries to work with the US military to defeat the drug cartels that are so dominant in many parts of the region. “The only way to defeat these enemies is by unleashing the power of our militaries,” he said. “You have to use your military.” The leaders who were present established the so-called Shield of the Americas, an institution that has been set up to drive the new Trump approach to the region."}],[{"start":201.80000000000004,"text":"So does the US have a coherent strategy in place to turn these bold rhetorical claims into action?"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":207.75000000000003,"text":"For the time being, the talk about taking on the cartels is limited by political realities in the region. One of the striking aspects of the Doral summit was the countries which were absent because they have leftwing governments who do not align with the Trump goals. These included Colombia, the biggest producer of cocaine; Mexico, the country through which most drugs reach the US; and Brazil, one of the main routes for drugs that arrive in Europe. Without those three governments involved, the Shield of the Americas initiative will have only limited impact."}],[{"start":238.90000000000003,"text":"Over the course of the year, that could change. Both Colombia (in May and June) and Brazil (in October) will hold presidential elections — and in both countries the races are shaping to involve a run-off between a candidate of the left and a rightwinger sympathetic to Trump. However, even if Brazil and Colombia were to elect leaders who want to partner more closely with the US, that leaves Mexico in the hands of a government, led by Claudia Sheinbaum, which is fiercely opposed to US military intervention against Mexico’s cartels. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":273.25000000000006,"text":"On China, the administration has had some successes. The Venezuela operation has sharply reduced Chinese influence in the country. Meanwhile, Panama’s Supreme Court has said that two ports operated by a China-based company on the canal are unconstitutional. "}],[{"start":289.05000000000007,"text":"But the reality is the region has developed deep economic links with China that it will be eager to maintain. Brazil exports more to China than it does to Europe and the US combined. Trade between China and Latin America has risen from around $12bn in 2000 to $518.5bn in 2024. "}],[{"start":308.50000000000006,"text":"Even a leader such as Argentina’s Javier Milei, who is an enthusiastic supporter of the Trump administration, has been very careful not to burn the country’s bridges with Beijing."}],[{"start":318.80000000000007,"text":"Brazil has been under pressure from Washington to sign exclusive deals with the US on its deposits of critical minerals, but it has largely been reluctant. “Whether it is the US, whether it is China, we do not reserve our minerals for one specific country,” says Celso Amorim, foreign policy adviser to Brazil’s president. "}],[{"start":339.6000000000001,"text":"Christopher Sabatini, a Latin America expert at the Chatham House think-tank in London, says it is wrong to think of the Shield of Americas initiative as an attempt to reboot the Monroe Doctrine, much less a new multilateral institution. Instead, it is a very personalised structure that revolves around the US president."}],[{"start":357.9000000000001,"text":"“It is a partisan and personal political project with Trump’s name on it, which offers access to the president,” he says. “And at least at that level, could be potentially quite effective.”"}],[{"start":376.1500000000001,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1777035041_5271.mp3"}