Zelenskyy in the lion’s den

{"text":[[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":4.94,"text":"Memories of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s last disastrous trip to the Oval Office will hang over the Ukrainian president’s visit to the White House on Monday."}],[{"start":14.469999999999999,"text":"The televised row between Zelenskyy and Donald Trump in February was a low point for the US and the western alliance. It was also a moment of great danger for the Ukrainian cause."}],[{"start":27.56,"text":"Another perilous moment is at hand. Trump was clearly beguiled by Vladimir Putin at the US-Russia summit in Anchorage. He may now try to push a Russian-inspired peace plan that would be totally unacceptable for Ukraine."}],[{"start":43.65,"text":"Rather than freezing the current battle lines, the Russian president is reportedly demanding that Ukraine should withdraw completely from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions — including strategic cities that remain under Ukrainian control. Russian demands also seem to include severe restrictions on the Ukrainian armed forces and on the country’s sovereignty."}],[{"start":68.34,"text":"The challenge for Zelenskyy is to get Trump off the path that Putin has laid out for him — without provoking another public row that could have dangerous consequences for his country. For the fact remains that Ukraine’s ability to fight on still depends to a significant extent on America’s willingness to provide intelligence and military support."}],[{"start":92.19,"text":"Undoing some of the damage done in Anchorage will not be an easy task. But Zelenskyy will have learned from the last bruising experience. And he will not go into the lion’s den alone."}],[{"start":105.53999999999999,"text":"The current plan is that the Ukrainian leader will be accompanied by key European leaders — including Sir Keir Starmer of Britain, Emmanuel Macron of France, Friedrich Merz of Germany and Ursula von der Leyen of the European Commission; as well as three of Europe’s leading “Trump whisperers” — Giorgia Meloni of Italy, Alexander Stubb of Finland and Mark Rutte of Nato. The Europeans will do their utmost to steer the meeting towards safer ground."}],[{"start":136.78,"text":"This will be an extremely delicate operation. The task will be to somehow persuade the US president that Putin has led him astray — without at any point suggesting that Trump is anything other than a “very stable genius” (in the president’s own words)."}],[{"start":154.91,"text":"Fortunately for the Europeans, Trump has a strong tendency to reflect the views of the last person he has spoken to. In Alaska that was Putin. But now it is the turn of Zelenskyy and his friends."}],[{"start":169.3,"text":"The few moments when Trump has talked tough on Russia have usually come after a meeting with a European leader. After seeing Starmer in Scotland in July, Trump shortened the deadline for Putin to agree to a ceasefire and threatened punitive sanctions on countries trading with Russia."}],[{"start":188.74,"text":"Rutte is notable for always dealing with the US president in a spirit of backslapping bonhomie — and has sometimes been roundly criticised for it. But Rutte’s broad smile will disguise a deep difference of opinion with some of Trump’s closest advisers."}],[{"start":206.37,"text":"Steve Witkoff, who has served as Trump’s de facto envoy to the Kremlin, said in March that it was “preposterous” to think that Russia was poised to invade Europe or Nato countries. Rutte, by contrast, has warned that “Russia could be ready to use military force against Nato within five years.”"}],[{"start":228.26,"text":"Statements like that underline that Europeans are accompanying Zelenskyy for reasons that go well beyond solidarity. They believe that the security of the whole continent is at stake in Ukraine."}],[{"start":240.35,"text":"The immediate issue, however, is how the war in Ukraine can be brought to a close. Trump’s recent talk about the need for “land swaps” set alarm bells ringing in Europe. But he has also made vague references to American security guarantees for Ukraine, which have been seized upon in Kyiv and Brussels."}],[{"start":261.25,"text":"If substantive negotiations get going — either in the White House or in subsequent days — they are likely to revolve around the potential trade-off between territory and security guarantees."}],[{"start":274.08,"text":"As things stand, it is pretty much impossible for Zelenskyy to accept the loss of any territory. That would imperil both Ukraine’s future security and his own political survival. But if Ukraine is offered strong and reliable commitments on security, it could become easier to consider concessions on territory."}],[{"start":295.46999999999997,"text":"It is now assumed that Nato membership for Ukraine is off the table. Earlier this year, there was talk instead of deploying a European “reassurance force” in Ukraine as part of a peace settlement. British troops would make up a significant part of any such force. But Starmer has said that any European force would need an American “backstop”."}],[{"start":320.26,"text":"The Trump administration has been extremely wary of any backstop commitment that they fear might get the US involved in a war. But if Trump is now willing to revisit the question of American security guarantees for Ukraine, then other parts of a potential peace deal, including territory, may come into play. As one European who is closely involved in the talks puts it, “there are a lot of moving parts”."}],[{"start":348.65999999999997,"text":"The parts are not only moving. They are also fiendishly complex. Would a European security guarantee involve a commitment for Europe to fight if Russia attacks Ukraine again? And what would America’s role be then?"}],[{"start":363.80999999999995,"text":"When Trump hectored Zelenskyy in their last Oval Office meeting, he remarked that it would make for “great television”. It is now time for some great diplomacy."}],[{"start":379.78999999999996,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftmailbox.cn/album/a_1755535417_7182.mp3"}