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Hours after spurning a US-led proposal for a 21-day truce with Hizbollah in September, Benjamin Netanyahu boasted that he was changing the balance of power in the region for years to come. Israel’s prime minister had just ordered the assassination of the Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, signalling that Israel was turning its focus from Gaza’s wastelands to step up its offensive against the Lebanese militants. As the year ends, the dynamics in the Middle East have unquestionably shifted in Israel’s favour.
在9月份拒绝美国主导的与黎巴嫩真主党(Hizbollah)达成21天停火协议的提议数小时后，本雅明•内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)夸口说，他正在改变未来几年该地区的力量平衡。这位以色列总理下令暗杀黎巴嫩真主党领导人哈桑•纳斯鲁拉(Hassan Nasrallah)，这表明以色列正将注意力从加沙的荒地转向加强对黎巴嫩武装分子的攻势。随着这一年的结束，中东的局势无疑已经向以色列倾斜。
The Israeli military’s relentless pounding of Hizbollah forced it into a ceasefire agreement that has essentially given Israel the right to continue striking in Lebanon. Iran appears at its most vulnerable in years. Its “axis of resistance” of Iranian-backed militants, including Hizbollah and Hamas, looks ever more a paper tiger. Israeli bombs destroyed much of the Islamic republic’s air defences in October — the biggest conventional attack on Iran in decades.
以色列军队对黎巴嫩真主党的持续猛烈打击迫使其达成停火协议，实质上赋予了以色列继续打击黎巴嫩的权利。伊朗似乎处于多年来最脆弱的状态。由伊朗支持的武装分子——黎巴嫩真主党和哈马斯(Hamas)——组成的“抵抗轴心”看起来越来越像纸老虎。10月份，以色列的炸弹摧毁了这个伊斯兰共和国的大部分防空系统，这是几十年来对伊朗最大的常规袭击。
The Islamic regime suffered another devastating setback this month when Syrian rebels toppled Bashar al-Assad, the dictator it propped up during Syria’s civil war. Some 4,000 Iranians were rushed out of the country as Iran lost a critical state ally in the Middle East and a vital land link to supply Hizbollah, its most important proxy. Israel may not have had a direct hand in Assad’s spectacular demise, but its pummeling of Iranian targets in Syria, and of Hizbollah, which had also helped shore up the regime, smoothed the rebels’ path to Damascus.
本月，叙利亚叛军推翻了伊朗在叙利亚内战期间扶持的独裁者巴沙尔•阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)，这个伊斯兰政权再次遭受毁灭性挫折。约4000名伊朗人撤离叙利亚，伊朗失去了在中东的一个重要盟友，也失去了为其最重要的代理人真主党提供补给的重要陆路通道。以色列可能没有直接参与阿萨德的惊人灭亡，但它对伊朗在叙利亚的目标和真主党（真主党也曾帮助支持阿萨德政权）的猛烈打击，使叛军通往大马士革的道路更加顺畅。
Since the intelligence failure of Hamas’s horrific October 7 2023 attack, which killed 1,200 people with 250 taken hostage, the degree of Israel’s military supremacy over its foes has become starkly clear. Netanyahu’s political fortunes have rebounded in tandem. After the Hamas assault, many forecast the end of his dominance of Israeli politics. However, he seems as entrenched as ever, his far-right coalition strengthened by the addition of another party, his polling numbers back to pre-October 7 levels.
自2023年10月7日哈马斯发动可怕袭击，造成1200人死亡、250人被劫持以来，以色列对敌人的军事优势变得非常明显。内塔尼亚胡的政治命运也随之回升。哈马斯袭击后，许多人预测他在以色列政治中的主导地位将结束。然而，他似乎依然稳固，他的极右翼联盟因另一个政党的加入而得到加强，民调回到了10月7日之前的水平。
Yet Israel’s battlefield gains have come at huge costs that will fester for years to come. None should mourn the end of Assad’s brutal regime, nor the weakening of the malign influence of Iran and its proxies. But Israel’s military successes will forever be tainted by the unspeakable suffering its offensives have brought to millions of people in Gaza and Lebanon.
然而，以色列在战场上的胜利是以巨大的代价换来的，这些代价将在未来几年内持续恶化。没有人会为阿萨德残暴政权的终结而哀悼，也没有人会为伊朗及其代理人的恶意影响被削弱而哀悼。但以色列的军事成功将永远被其进攻给加沙和黎巴嫩数百万人带来的难以言说的痛苦所玷污。
Israel faces growing accusations of committing acts of genocide in Gaza, including a case at the International Court of Justice, in detailed reports by Amnesty and Human Rights Watch and among Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, which Netanyahu has long courted. Not just the horrific death toll — more than 45,000, according to Palestinian officials — fuels such allegations, but also the siege Israel has laid to 2.3mn-strong Gaza; the restrictions on aid and water; and the destruction of civilian infrastructure that has rendered much of the strip uninhabitable.
以色列面临着越来越多关于其在加沙实施种族灭绝行为的指控，包括国际法院(International Court of Justice)的案件、国际特赦组织(Amnesty)和人权观察(Human Rights Watch)的详细报告以及包括沙特阿拉伯在内的阿拉伯国家的指控，而内塔尼亚胡长期以来一直在向沙特阿拉伯献媚。助长这种指控的不仅是可怕的死亡人数——据巴勒斯坦官员称超过45000人，还有以色列对230万加沙居民的围困、对援助和水资源的限制以及对民用基础设施的破坏，这些破坏导致加沙地带大部分地区无法居住。
Issuing an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, the International Criminal Court said there were “reasonable grounds” to believe he bears criminal responsibility for “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare . . . and other inhumane acts”. Israel’s war and siege is a stain not just on Israel but also the US, which has allowed Netanyahu to act with impunity.
国际刑事法院在对内塔尼亚胡发出逮捕令时说，有“合理的理由”相信他对“以饥饿作为战争方法的战争罪......和其他不人道行为”负有刑事责任”。以色列的战争和围困不仅是以色列的污点，也是美国的污点，因为美国允许内塔尼亚胡逍遥法外。
After destroying Hamas’s military capacity and neutering regional threats to Israel, Netanyahu has no justification not to end the conflict and agree a deal to release the remaining hostages. But he and his far-right allies instead appear bent on occupying more territory on various fronts and keeping Israel in a perpetual state of conflict. Ultimately, Israel’s security can only be guaranteed with peace, and it has never been in a stronger position to achieve this — if only Netanyahu could see it.
在摧毁哈马斯的军事能力并解除对以色列的地区威胁之后，内塔尼亚胡没有理由不结束冲突并达成释放剩余人质的协议。但他和他的极右翼盟友却似乎执意要在各条战线上占领更多领土，让以色列永远处于冲突状态。归根结底，只有和平才能保障以色列的安全，而以色列从未像现在这样有能力实现这一目标——只要内塔尼亚胡能意识到这一点。