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Bayer’s 2018 acquisition of US crop science company Monsanto is the takeover that just keeps on taking. This week’s €2.5bn impairment charge adds to already extensive financial damage. It will reinvigorate activist demands for a break-up.
拜耳(Bayer) 2018年收购美国作物科学公司孟山都(Monsanto)的交易可谓一次不断让拜耳付出代价的收购。本周的25亿欧元减值损失使本已严重的财务损失雪上加霜。这将重新激起维权投资者要求分手的呼声。
Bayer paid $65bn for Monsanto assets that included a glyphosate weedkiller called Roundup. Management initially underestimated the high cost of an accompanying health scare, as managements typically do. Allegations that Roundup is carcinogenic have prompted numerous lawsuits.
拜耳斥资650亿美元收购了孟山都的资产，其中包括名为Roundup的草甘膦除草剂。管理层最初低估了伴随而来的健康恐慌所带来的高昂代价——管理层通常都是如此。有关Roundup致癌的指控已经引发了无数诉讼。
Bayer trades at a depressed enterprise valuation of about 7 times forward ebitda. Change may now be in the air. Werner Baumann, the chief executive responsible for the Monsanto purchase, has stepped aside after a long period of poor share price performance. Replacement Bill Anderson started last month. As a former Roche executive, his expertise is drugs, not weedkillers.
拜耳目前的企业估值较低，约为预期ebitda的7倍。变化可能正在酝酿之中。负责收购孟山都的首席执行官沃纳•鲍曼(Werner Baumann)在股价表现长期低迷后已经下台。接替他的比尔•安德森(Bill Anderson)上个月上任。作为罗氏(Roche)前高管，他的专长是药物，而非除草剂。
A couple of things look odd about the impairment. First, it is relatively small, given that Bayer has about €39bn of goodwill on its balance sheet, more than half of which derives from the Monsanto acquisition. Second, Bayer blames a weak glyphosate market, which might be a temporary phenomenon, for the writedown. About 60 per cent of world sales are generic products, most of which are made in China.
此次减值有几个奇怪之处。首先，减值额相对较小，考虑到拜耳资产负债表上约有390亿欧元的商誉，其中一半以上来自于对孟山都的收购。其次，拜耳将减值归咎于草甘膦市场的疲软，而这可能只是暂时现象。全球约 60%的销售为无牌产品，其中大部分由中国制造。
Anderson will hopefully substitute signal for noise when he presents earnings on August 8. He should signal whether a restructuring is likely. Activists Inclusive Capital and Bluebell have called for this. They favour a spinout of the crop science unit, a business that troubles environmental, social and governance investors.
安德森有望在8月8日公布财报时用信号代替噪音。他应该表明是否可能进行重组。维权投资者Inclusive Capital和Bluebell呼吁这样做。他们倾向于将作物科学部门——一个困扰环境、社会和治理投资者的业务——分拆出去。
That would make sense. Even at 10 times next year’s ebitda, a sixth cheaper than rivals FMC and Corteva, Bayer’s crop science unit should be worth about €60bn, 2024 Visible Alpha estimates imply — albeit undiscounted for a long tail of legal claims. Compare that with the group’s total enterprise value of €86bn.
这样做是有道理的。根据Visible Alpha的估计，即便按明年的10倍ebitda计算(比竞争对手FMC和Corteva便宜六分之一)，拜耳旗下作物科学部门的价值也应该在600亿欧元左右——尽管没有考虑到大量的法律索赔。相比之下，该集团的总企业价值为860亿欧元。
Bayer has argued that cash flow from crop science and its consumer health unit help fund its growing pharmaceuticals pipeline. But Bayer’s persistently low multiple against agrochemical and pharma peers underscores the need for change.
拜耳辩称，来自作物科学及其消费者保健部门的现金流，有助于为其不断增加的药品产品线提供资金。但拜耳相对于农化和制药同行的市盈率持续偏低，突显了变革的必要性。
Anderson wishes to boost pharma, for example, by removing centralised research budgeting. But that could take years to lift the group’s low valuation. Like all incoming bosses, he has a brief window to cut loose a problem division. He should exploit it.
例如，安德森希望通过取消集中的研究预算安排来促进制药部门的发展。但这可能需要数年时间才能提升该集团的低估值。像所有新上任的老板一样，他有一个短暂的窗口来摆脱一个问题部门。他应该利用这一时机。